What’s at risk in Sunday’s vote for France and its president
The result of a closely watched poll this Sunday might bring far-right party closer to power than it has been in decades, which would significantly impact Emmanuel Macron’s presidency of France.
Macron’s centrist Renaissance party trailed a left-wing bloc of parties as well as the far-right National Rally, commonly known as the Rassemblement National, or RN, following the first round of voting in the recently convened legislative elections.
Macron would have to coexist with the far-right if the RN wins a majority of the votes on Sunday. It seems that Macron underestimated the degree of political divisiveness in France, even while RN opponents are taking systematic steps to avoid such a result, according to analysts. Here’s a quick overview of how things came to be.
France recently held an election, right?
Macron was elected to a second term as president two years ago. Later in 2022, there were elections for the legislature.After right-wing parties performed strongly in the European parliamentary elections last month, Macron called a snap parliamentary election in France, handily defeating his own centrists in the process.He portrayed “the rise of nationalists and demagogues” as a danger to France, its standing in Europe, and the international community.
How does French voting operate?
French voters cast ballots in the legislative election to select local representatives for the National Assembly of France.For a candidate to be deemed the clear winner in the first round, they needed to receive more than 50% of the vote.
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If that didn’t happen, the top two finishers and anyone who received at least one-eighth of the votes cast in the first round will compete in a second round of voting.In the first round of polling, the RN and its allies led, followed by a cluster of left-wing parties. Both were followed by the Renaissance party and other moderate allies.
What does an RN mean?
Formerly the National Front, the RN is a far-right, anti-immigrant political organization.At the request of previous leader Marine Le Pen, who is also the daughter of the party’s co-founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, the organization renamed itself in 2018.
According to Edward Berenson, a history and French studies professor at New York University, Marine Le Pen recognized the constraints her party faced because of its tight ties to her father.
In the nation’s 2002 presidential election, the older Le Pen—a contentious political figure with a history of racism and antisemitism convictions—won nearly 17% of the vote while “basically the entire left voted for Jacques Chirac,” according to Berenson.
What does an RN mean?
Formerly the National Front, the RN is a far-right, anti-immigrant political organization.At the request of previous leader Marine Le Pen, who is also the daughter of the party’s co-founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, the organization renamed itself in 2018.
According to Edward Berenson, a history and French studies professor at New York University, Marine Le Pen recognized the constraints her party faced because of its tight ties to her father.
In the nation’s 2002 presidential election, the older Le Pen—a contentious political figure with a history of racism and antisemitism convictions—won nearly 17% of the vote while “basically the entire left voted for Jacques Chirac,” according to Berenson. Jordan Bardella took over as leader of the RN in November 2022, replacing Le Pen.
During last weekend’s first round of voting, Le Pen, a party member, kept her place in the National Assembly. She won’t need a second round because of the overwhelming support she earned in her northern French district of Pas-de-Calais.
How are opponents of RN acting?
The opposition to the RN has moved to stop an overall victory in the election, given the party’s dominant standing in the first round of voting.In districts where RN candidates could profit from vote splitting, more than 200 candidates are withdrawing from consideration for the second round of voting.
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Following the release of a photo showing her donning a Nazi officer’s cap, one RN applicant was dropped. Concerns regarding the appropriateness of other candidates who have made contentious remarks or who have not been seen out on the campaign trail are another issue the party is addressing.
What lies ahead for Macron?
Macron has stated he won’t resign from office before the end of his time as president, which ends in 2027.Nevertheless, Macron might be compelled to enter into a power-sharing arrangement with Bardella, 28, if the RN wins the legislative elections.
Should that occur, Bardella would surpass current prime minister Gabriel Attal, who took office earlier this year at the age of 34, to become the youngest French prime minister in history.
The potential for power distribution
In France, the president is the head of state and the prime minister is the head of government.Should the two individuals share similar political views, the French president will have more clout and authority. However, authority must be shared and the partnership may become tense if they are from competing parties, a situation known as “cohabitation” that has happened in the past.
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A situation similar to this was faced by the late French president François Mitterrand thirty years before Macron took office. In 1986, after legislative elections, socialist Mitterrand named conservative Chirac as prime minister.According to Berenson, the goal of the French constitution, which has been in effect for almost 70 years, was to establish a more strong presidency and stabilize the national government.
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